UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2026-Oct-04 18:08 CT

Price Action

• Last: 103.75,
• Bars: Large,
• Mom: fast.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -69%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Oct

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2026

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -38%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 102.65625,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 105.40625,
• 5. Levels R: 151.34375, 151.06250, 150.43750, 149.71875, 149.59375,
• 6. Levels S: 102.65625.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 104.09375 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 105.875 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 107.9375 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 109.1875 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 110.6875 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 114.09375 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR: 46,
• VOLMA: 293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 02 Oct 2026: Long UB 12-26 @ 104.5 Signals.USAR-MSFG
• 28 Sep 2026: Short UB 12-26 @ 105.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

UB is in a decisive downside swing, with large-range bars and fast downside momentum carrying price beneath every daily benchmark. The short-term pivot and intermediate HiLo structures remain in DTrend, confirming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price is below the weekly and yearly Fib-grid centers, while the October monthly grid remains marginally positive, characterizing the monthly reading as a countertrend hold within a broader bearish structure. The 102.65625 pivot low is the nearest defined support, while 105.40625 is the pivot-reversal level for a potential short-term structural change. Volume and ATR expansion align with an active selloff rather than a low-volatility consolidation.