UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2026-May-12 07:07 CT

Price Action

• Last: 114.25,
• Bars: Small,
• Mom: Slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -56%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month May

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -6%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2026

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -9%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt Low 114.12500,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt High 119.18750,
• 5. Levels R: 137.37500, 137.31250, 127.31250, 123.68750, 122.53125,
• 6. Levels S: 114.12500, 111.21875.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 116.12500 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 116.28125 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 117.37500 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 118.50000 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 120.68750 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 128.75000 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 08 May 2026: Long UB 06-26 @ 115.78125 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 07 May 2026: Short UB 06-26 @ 115.28125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 06 May 2026: Long UB 06-26 @ 115.5625 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

UB futures remain in a persistent downtrend across weekly, monthly, and yearly session fib grids, with price sitting below the NTZ/F0% reference in each timeframe and the pivot structure still pointing lower. The short-term swing pivot has rolled to a new lower low at 114.12500, while the next pivot reference is a lower rebound high at 119.18750, keeping the sequence tilted to downside continuation unless price can reclaim the cluster of overhead resistance. Benchmarks are stacked bearishly, with every tracked moving average sloping lower and price under all of them, reinforcing a weak trend regime rather than a mean-reversion base. Recent signal flow shows alternating long and short triggers, but the latest structure still favors bearish control after the failed rebounds near the 122 to 123.68750 zone and the broader rejection from the 127+ area. The chart is consistent with a grinding selloff, lower highs, lower lows, and repeated failed recovery attempts inside a broader corrective-to-bearish bond futures cycle.