UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Dec-16 07:23 CT

Price Action

• Last: 117'31.5,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 14%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Dec

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -52%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 1%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt Low 117'21.875,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt High 121'7.1875,
• 5. Levels R: 137'65.625, 137'7.1875, 124'03.125, 121'7.1875,
• 6. Levels S: 117'21.875, 111'56.250.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 119'31.5 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 120'21.375 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 120'34.875 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 122'78.750 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 134'18.125 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 143'7.844 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 16 Dec 2025: Long UB 03-26 @ 117.875 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 12 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 118.1875 Signals.USAR.TR120

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market in transition. Price action is consolidating with medium bars and slow momentum, reflecting indecision after a period of volatility. The short-term WSFG trend is up, with price holding above the NTZ center, but the swing pivot trend is down, indicating a possible short-term pullback or pause within a broader move. Intermediate-term signals are mixed: the MSFG trend is down and price is below the monthly NTZ, but the HiLo swing trend is up, suggesting a potential for a countertrend rally or a base-building phase. Long-term structure remains bearish, with most major moving averages (55, 100, 200 week) trending down and price well below these benchmarks, despite the yearly fib grid showing a slight upward bias. Key resistance levels are clustered far above current price, while support is close by, highlighting a market that may be searching for a durable low. Recent trade signals reflect this choppy environment, with both long and short signals triggered in quick succession. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase with a bearish long-term backdrop, but short- and intermediate-term trends are showing early signs of potential stabilization or reversal attempts.