UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Dec-12 07:13 CT

Price Action

• Last: 118.19,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -38%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Dec

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -48%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 1%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 117.5625,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 124.03125,
• 5. Levels R: 135.17, 127.66, 124.03,
• 6. Levels S: 117.56, 111.56.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 119.04 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 119.08 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 120.46 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 122.93 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 130.71 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 133.16 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 12 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 118.1875 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 12 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 118.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 04 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 119.5625 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Neutral.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market under pressure in the short and intermediate term, with both the WSFG and MSFG trends pointing down and price action below their respective NTZ/F0% levels. Momentum is slow, and recent bars are of medium size, indicating a lack of strong conviction but a persistent downward bias. Swing pivots confirm a short-term downtrend, though the intermediate-term HiLo trend is up, suggesting some underlying support or a possible basing attempt. Key resistance levels are clustered above current price, with 124.03, 127.66, and 135.17 as major hurdles, while support sits at 117.56 and 111.56. Moving averages reinforce the bearish tone, with all but the 20-week MA trending down. Recent trade signals are all short, aligning with the prevailing short-term and intermediate-term bearish structure. However, the yearly grid trend is up, and price remains just above the long-term NTZ, hinting at potential for stabilization or a longer-term base if support holds. Overall, the chart reflects a market in a corrective or consolidative phase within a broader long-term transition, with downside risk prevailing in the near term.