UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Dec-12 07:12 CT

Price Action

• Last: 117'28,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -38%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Dec

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -48%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 1%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 117'28,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 119'18.75,
• 5. Levels R: 119'79.31, 119'73.03, 119'45.03, 119'18.75, 118'84.37,
• 6. Levels S: 114'68.75, 113'12.50.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 118'6 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 118'18.75 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 119'01.19 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 119'79.31 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 119'45.03 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 118'80.47 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR: 46,
• VOLMA: 293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 12 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 118.1875 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 12 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 118.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 04 Dec 2025: Short UB 03-26 @ 119.5625 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Neutral.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures daily chart is showing a clear bearish bias in both the short- and intermediate-term timeframes. Price action has been characterized by medium-sized bars and slow momentum, with the last price closing at 117'28, which is below all key moving averages and both the weekly and monthly session fib grid centers. The swing pivot structure confirms a dominant downtrend, with the most recent pivot being a new swing low and the next potential reversal only above 119'18.75. Multiple resistance levels are stacked above, while support is much lower, indicating a lack of immediate downside barriers. All benchmark moving averages from short to long term are trending down, reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. Recent trade signals have also been to the short side, aligning with the technical picture. However, the long-term yearly fib grid trend remains marginally up, suggesting that while the current cycle is bearish, the broader context is not decisively negative. Volatility (ATR) and volume metrics are moderate, with no signs of a major breakout or capitulation. In summary, the market is in a corrective or trending down phase, with sellers in control and no technical evidence yet of a reversal or strong support.