UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Nov-20 07:19 CT

Price Action

• Last: 119'21,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Nov

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -8%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 119'13,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 121'10,
• 5. Levels R: 124'31, 122'16, 121'10,
• 6. Levels S: 119'13, 114'06, 113'13.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 119'28 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 120'06 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 121'10 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 120'19 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 119'13 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 119'13 Up Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR: 46,
• VOLMA: 293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 18 Nov 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.5625 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 17 Nov 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.125 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Bullish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures are currently experiencing a short- and intermediate-term downtrend, as indicated by both the WSFG and MSFG trends, as well as the swing pivot structure (DTrend) and all short/intermediate moving averages pointing lower. Price is trading below the key monthly and weekly NTZ/F0% levels, reinforcing the bearish bias in the near term. The most recent swing pivot has established a new low at 119'13, with resistance levels overhead at 121'10 and 122'16, suggesting any rallies may face selling pressure at these points. However, the long-term YSFG trend remains up, and both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are in uptrends, indicating that the broader trend is still constructive. Volatility (ATR) is moderate, and volume is elevated, hinting at active participation during this phase. Recent trade signals have triggered long entries, possibly anticipating a countertrend bounce or a test of resistance, but the prevailing technical structure favors caution until a clear reversal is confirmed. The market is in a corrective phase within a larger bullish context, with potential for further downside before a sustainable recovery.