UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Oct-06 07:21 CT

Price Action

• Last: 119'18,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -36%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Oct

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -8%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt high 122'06.25,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt low 117'30.13,
• 5. Levels R: 233'25.00, 218'12.50, 212'08.50, 152'06.25, 139'10.76, 127'93.75,
• 6. Levels S: 119'18, 117'30.13, 111'84.37.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 119'18 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 119'18 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 123'95.50 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 127'93.75 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 139'10.76 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 152'06.25 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 03 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.90625 Signals.USAR-MSFG
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.8125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market in transition. Price action is consolidating with medium bars and slow momentum, reflecting indecision after a prolonged downtrend. Short- and intermediate-term Fib grid trends remain down, with price below their respective NTZ/F0% levels, but both swing pivot trends have shifted to uptrends, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce or retracement. The most recent pivots highlight resistance at 122'06.25 and support at 117'30.13, with the last price sitting just above key support. Weekly benchmarks indicate short-term moving averages have turned up, but all long-term averages (20, 55, 100, 200 week) remain in strong downtrends, reinforcing a bearish long-term structure. Recent trade signals have triggered long entries, reflecting attempts to capture a countertrend move within a broader bearish context. Overall, the market is showing early signs of a possible short-term reversal or consolidation phase, but the dominant long-term trend remains bearish. Swing traders should note the potential for choppy price action as the market tests support and resistance within this range-bound environment, with any sustained move above 122'06.25 needed to confirm a more significant trend change.