UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Oct-05 18:18 CT

Price Action

• Last: 120.91,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -30%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Oct

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt high 12-2025,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt low 117.59,
• 5. Levels R: 152.48, 151.78, 138.00, 137.94, 127.94, 123.96,
• 6. Levels S: 117.30, 111.84.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 117.30 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 119.73 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 123.96 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 127.94 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 139.11 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 151.78 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 03 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.90625 Signals.USAR-MSFG
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.8125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market in transition. Price action is consolidating with medium-sized bars and slow momentum, reflecting indecision after a prolonged downtrend. Short- and intermediate-term Fib grid trends remain down, with price below their respective NTZ/F0% levels, but both swing pivot and HiLo trends have shifted to an uptrend, suggesting a possible emerging base or early reversal attempt. Recent trade signals are long, aligning with the short-term and intermediate-term pivot uptrends, but the long-term trend remains bearish as indicated by all major moving averages (20, 55, 100, 200 week) trending down and acting as overhead resistance. Key resistance levels are clustered well above current price, while support is established at 117.30 and 111.84. The overall structure suggests a market in a corrective phase within a larger bearish context, with potential for further consolidation or a countertrend rally, but significant resistance remains overhead. The long-term bias is still bearish until major resistance levels and long-term moving averages are reclaimed.