UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Oct-05 18:17 CT

Price Action

• Last: 120.54531,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum average.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -30%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Oct

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 5%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt high 122.65625,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt low 119.1875,
• 5. Levels R: 122.65625, 120.8125, 119.9375,
• 6. Levels S: 119.1875, 118.03125, 116.96875, 115.625, 114.96875, 113.40625, 111.84375.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 119.96 Up Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 119.62 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 118.84 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 118.50 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 117.34 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 119.45 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR:46,
• VOLMA:293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 03 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.90625 Signals.USAR-MSFG
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.8125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 02 Oct 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.3125 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Bullish,
• Long-Term: Bullish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures daily chart shows a market in transition. Price action has recently rebounded from September lows, with medium-sized bars and average momentum indicating a shift from prior weakness. The short-term WSFG and MSFG both show price below their respective NTZ/F0% levels, with a downward trend bias, but the swing pivot summary reveals a divergence: the short-term pivot trend is down, while the intermediate-term HiLo trend is up, suggesting a possible inflection point. Recent trade signals have triggered long entries, aligning with the uptrend in all key moving averages except the 200-day, which remains in a downtrend. Support levels are layered below, with the nearest at 119.1875, while resistance is overhead at 122.65625. The ATR and volume metrics indicate moderate volatility and participation. Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral as the market consolidates after a bounce, but the intermediate and long-term trends are bullish, supported by rising moving averages and a positive yearly fib grid. The market appears to be in a recovery phase, with potential for further upside if resistance levels are cleared, but still facing short-term headwinds as it digests recent gains.