UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Oct-01 07:18 CT

Price Action

• Last: 119.90625,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 20%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Oct

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 2%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 6%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt high 122.0625,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt low 117.40625,
• 5. Levels R: 213.25000, 202.81250, 198.06250, 152.40625, 151.78125, 139.23016, 137.93750, 127.93750,
• 6. Levels S: 120.1719, 117.10469, 111.84375.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 120.17 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 117.10 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 123.96 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 127.96 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 139.23 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 152.40 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 01 Oct 2025: Short UB 12-25 @ 119.90625 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 29 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 120.09375 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Bullish,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market in transition. Price action is currently consolidating with medium-sized bars and slow momentum, reflecting indecision after a recent swing high. The short-term and intermediate-term Fib grid trends are both up, with price holding above the NTZ center lines, suggesting underlying bullish pressure in these timeframes. Swing pivots confirm an uptrend in both short- and intermediate-term metrics, but the next key pivot is a potential pullback to 117.40625, with resistance overhead at 122.0625 and several higher levels. However, the long-term picture remains bearish, as all major moving averages (20, 55, 100, 200 week) are trending down and price is below these benchmarks. The recent trade signals show mixed short-term direction, with a quick reversal from long to short, highlighting choppy, range-bound conditions. The market is currently testing support near 120.17 and 117.10, with a broader consolidation pattern between major support and resistance. Overall, the chart reflects a market attempting to build a base within a long-term downtrend, with short- and intermediate-term bullish attempts facing strong overhead resistance and persistent long-term bearish momentum. This environment is characterized by volatility, mean reversion, and potential for both trend continuation and sharp countertrend moves.