UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Sep-16 07:19 CT

Price Action

• Last: 121'15,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 19%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Sep

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 110%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: 10%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• YSFG Trend: Up.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: Neutral,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt High 121.93750,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt Low 116.62500,
• 5. Levels R: 151.78125, 138.00000, 137.93750, 127.93750, 121.93750,
• 6. Levels S: 111.84375.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 121.81 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 121.59 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 123.87 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 127.87 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 140.90 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 166.95 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 16 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 121.8125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 15 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 121.59375 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bullish,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The weekly chart for UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures shows a recent shift in short-term momentum, with price action breaking above the NTZ center and both the 5- and 10-week moving averages trending up. The short-term swing pivot trend is up, supported by recent long trade signals, while the intermediate-term HiLo trend remains neutral, indicating a lack of clear direction in the medium term. Long-term structure is still bearish, as the 55-, 100-, and 200-week moving averages are all trending down and price remains well below these benchmarks. Resistance is layered above at 121.94, 127.94, and 137.94, with major support at 111.84. The market appears to be in a recovery phase from a prolonged downtrend, with a potential for further upside in the short term, but faces significant overhead resistance and lacks confirmation of a sustained reversal in the longer timeframes. The environment is characterized by a possible early-stage trend change, but the broader context remains cautious until higher resistance levels are reclaimed and long-term moving averages flatten or turn up.