UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Sep-04 07:18 CT

Price Action

• Last: 116.95,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Average.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 56%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Sep

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 25%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -1%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: UTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt High 117.09375,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt Low 114.96875,
• 5. Levels R: 119.78125, 119.46875, 119.03125, 118.625, 118.40625, 117.09375,
• 6. Levels S: 114.96875, 113.40625, 111.84375.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 116.84 Up Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 116.59 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 117.18 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 116.95 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 117.71 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 119.09 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR: 46,
• VOLMA: 293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 04 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 116.9375 Signals.USAR-MSFG
• 03 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 116.84375 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 03 Sep 2025: Long UB 12-25 @ 116.59375 Signals.USAR-WSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bullish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bullish,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures daily chart shows a notable shift in momentum, with price action currently supported by a series of recent long signals and a clear uptrend in both short- and intermediate-term metrics. The price is trading above the key short- and intermediate-term moving averages, and both the WSFG and MSFG grids indicate an upward trend with price above their respective NTZ/F0% levels. Swing pivot analysis confirms a short-term uptrend, with the next key resistance levels clustered near 117.09 and 118.40–119.78, while support is established at 114.97 and below. However, the long-term trend remains bearish, as indicated by the 100- and 200-day moving averages and the YSFG grid, suggesting that the current rally is still counter to the broader yearly downtrend. Volatility (ATR) and volume (VOLMA) are moderate, supporting the view of a developing trend rather than a breakout or exhaustion move. The market appears to be in a recovery phase, with higher lows and a series of bullish signals, but faces significant overhead resistance and remains vulnerable to longer-term selling pressure.