UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Chart Analysis: 2025-Aug-20 07:19 CT

Price Action

• Last: 117'06,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 14%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Aug

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: UTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt High 119.8750,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt Low 114.0000,
• 5. Levels R: 152.0000, 138.21875, 138.16525, 128.15625, 119.8750,
• 6. Levels S: 112.06250.

Weekly Benchmarks

• (Intermediate-Term) 5 Week: 116.09875 Up Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 10 Week: 116.09375 Up Trend,
• (Long-Term) 20 Week: 119.09375 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 55 Week: 124.21906 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Week: 141.89822 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Week: 121.23955 Down Trend.

Recent Trade Signals

• 20 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 117 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 19 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 117.125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 18 Aug 2025: Short UB 09-25 @ 116.25 Signals.USAR.TR720
• 13 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 118.3125 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bullish,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures weekly chart shows a market in transition. Short-term momentum has shifted upward, with price action above the weekly and monthly session fib grid centers and recent long signals confirming a bullish short-term bias. However, the intermediate-term trend remains mixed: while the monthly fib grid and short/intermediate moving averages are turning up, the swing pivot HiLo trend is still down, suggesting ongoing consolidation or a possible basing process. Long-term structure is bearish, with price below the yearly fib grid center and all major long-term moving averages trending down, indicating persistent overhead resistance and a dominant downtrend. Key resistance levels cluster between 119'08 and 128'16, while major support sits at 112'06. The market is currently trading in a range, with slow momentum and medium-sized bars, reflecting indecision and potential for volatility should a breakout occur. Swing traders should note the evolving short-term uptrend within a broader bearish context, as the market tests the lower end of a multi-month range.