UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Aug-20 07:19 CT

Price Action

• Last: 117.65096,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: 14%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• WSFG Trend: Up.

MSFG Month Aug

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: 3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Above,
• MSFG Trend: Up.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 117.09375,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 118.78125,
• 5. Levels R: 128.15625, 124.4375, 120.0, 119.6875, 118.78125,
• 6. Levels S: 113.625, 112.0625.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 117.1875 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 117.53125 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 117.65096 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 118.53125 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 119.65096 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 121.71875 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR:46,
• VOLMA:293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 20 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 117 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 19 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 117.125 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 18 Aug 2025: Short UB 09-25 @ 116.25 Signals.USAR.TR720
• 13 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 118.3125 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Neutral,
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures market is currently experiencing a period of indecision in the short and intermediate term, with both the Weekly and Monthly Session Fib Grids showing an upward trend and price holding above their respective NTZ/F0% levels. However, the swing pivot structure and all benchmark moving averages remain in a downtrend, indicating persistent underlying bearish pressure. The most recent price action is characterized by medium-sized bars and slow momentum, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Resistance levels are stacked above, with significant overhead supply, while support is found much lower, highlighting a wide trading range. Recent trade signals show mixed directionality, reflecting the choppy and consolidative nature of the current environment. Long-term trend metrics remain firmly bearish, with price below the yearly grid and all major moving averages. Overall, the market is in a consolidation phase with a bearish long-term bias, and traders are likely watching for a decisive breakout or breakdown from this range.