UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Chart Analysis: 2025-Aug-19 07:19 CT

Price Action

• Last: 116.09375,
• Bars: Medium,
• Mom: Momentum slow.

WSFG Weekly

• Short-Term
• WSFG Current: -1%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• WSFG Trend: Down.

MSFG Month Aug

• Intermediate-Term
• MSFG Current: -3%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• MSFG Trend: Down.

YSFG Year 2025

• Long-Term
• YSFG Current: -4%
• F0%/NTZ' Bias: Price Below,
• YSFG Trend: Down.

Swing Pivots

• (Short-Term) 1. Pvt. Trend: DTrend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 2. HiLo Trend: DTrend,
• 3. Pvt. Evolve: Pvt low 116.09375,
• 4. Pvt. Next: Pvt high 118.84375,
• 5. Levels R: 119.6875, 120.0, 122.40625, 128.15625,
• 6. Levels S: 113.625, 112.0625.

Daily Benchmarks

• (Short-Term) 5 Day: 117.26 Down Trend,
• (Short-Term) 10 Day: 117.09 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 20 Day: 117.69 Down Trend,
• (Intermediate-Term) 55 Day: 117.33 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 100 Day: 117.69 Down Trend,
• (Long-Term) 200 Day: 119.51 Down Trend.

Additional Metrics

• ATR:46,
• VOLMA:293527.

Recent Trade Signals

• 18 Aug 2025: Short UB 09-25 @ 116.25 Signals.USAR.TR720
• 18 Aug 2025: Short UB 09-25 @ 116.375 Signals.USAR-WSFG
• 14 Aug 2025: Short UB 09-25 @ 117.5625 Signals.USAR.TR120
• 13 Aug 2025: Long UB 09-25 @ 118.3125 Signals.USAR-MSFG

Overall Rating

• Short-Term: Bearish,
• Intermediate-Term: Bearish,
• Long-Term: Bearish.

Key Insights Summary

The UB Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures are exhibiting a clear bearish structure across all timeframes. Price is trading below all key moving averages and session fib grid levels, with the most recent swing pivot confirming a new short-term low. The momentum is slow, and the recent bars are medium-sized, indicating a controlled but persistent downward move rather than a panic sell-off. All major trend indicators (WSFG, MSFG, YSFG) are aligned to the downside, and the most recent trade signals have favored short positions. Resistance levels are stacked well above the current price, while support is found lower at 113.625 and 112.0625, suggesting room for further downside if selling pressure continues. Volatility, as measured by ATR, is moderate, and volume remains steady. The market appears to be in a sustained downtrend, with no immediate signs of reversal or significant counter-trend activity.